CDC Gating Criteria (Beta)

The CDC guidelines propose the use of six “gating” indicators to assess when a state should relax its restrictions. The indicators are based on symptoms, cases, and hospitals.

This is a work in progress. As of June 15th, we've calculated 5 of the 6 gating indicators. You can find the code we use on GitHub. If you have feedback, send it to feedback@covidexitstrategy.org.

The data presented here is pulled from The COVID Tracking Project. Last updated on December 9th.

Our HHS/CDC data has not been updated since July 14, 2020 because the "estimated" ICU and inpatient bed data was removed, so we are only summarizing 4 of the 6 gating indicators.
Indicators Based on Cases
To determine a downward trajectory, data are assessed using a smoothed curve. This differs from the typical approach of using a 3-day or 7-day rolling average.
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To calculate this curve, the CDC applies a cubic spline, or “smoothed curve”, a statistical method that smooths out day-to-day variability in the data. The slope of this curve is used to assess declining incidence. Using guidance provided by the CDC, we've calculated the 3-day cubic spline (3DCS).
Decreases in newly identified COVID cases
Criteria: Downward trajectory (or near-zero incidence) of documented cases over a 14-day period. Uses a 3-day average in a cubic smoothing spline.

According to the guidance, states are allowed a 5 day grace period when calculating a downward trajectory. Near-zero incidents is defined as fewer than 10 cases per 100k population over 14 days.

The data powering this table can be found here.
Decrease in percentage of COVID positive test
Criteria: Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period with stable or increasing test volume

According to the guidance, states are allowed a 2 to 3 day grace period when calculating a downward trajectory. A near-zero plateau was not defined, so we've assumed it means less than 1% positivity.

The data powering this table can be found here.
Indicators Based on Symptoms
Decreases in visits for influenza-like-illness (ILI)
Criteria: Downward trajectory of ILI/CLI reported over a 14-day period.

Only weekly data for ILI is available from the CDC, so trajectory is calculated based on the difference between two weeks. The raw data from the CDC can be found here.

The data powering this table can be found here.
Indicators Based on Health System
Treat all patients without crisis care
Criteria: Jurisdiction inpatient & ICU beds < 80% full for 7 consecutive days.

This indicator also looks at staff shortages and PPE availability. Because that information is not available publicly, we focus on inpatient & ICU occupancy.

Unfortunately this data is out of data because the data has been unavailable since July 14, 2020.

The data powering this table can be found here.
Robust testing program
Criteria: Test availability such that percentage of positive tests is ≤ 20% for 14 days

This indicator also looks "median time from test order to result" but that information is not made publicly available. So we focus on percent positivity.

The data powering this table can be found here.